Soccermetrics

Penalty kick shootouts and the importance of shooting first

J. Apesteguia and I. Palacios-Huerta, "Psychological Pressure in Competitive Environments:
Evidence from a Randomized Natural Experiment", American Economic Review 100 (December 2010): 2548-2564.

This economics paper focuses on the psychological issues involved in high-stakes competitive environments, using the penalty kick shootout as an illustration.  The major finding of the paper is that there is a structural advantage in the penalty kick shootout to the team that shoots first, which can be explained by psychological factors. 

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What I'm up to this week

This is a busy week for everyone doing analytics work.  People are rushing to complete their final analyses of the 32 finalists, make tournament predictions, and whatever software tools they need to carry out their tasks.  Here is what I'm working on this week:

• Debugging the data entry forms that implement the Football Match Result Database for leagues without playoffs (version 1.0.0).  There were some SQL that wasn't giving me the results that I needed, but I fixed that tonight (I hope).
• Add a section of the FMRD specs document for version 1.0.0 on views, and rearrange the document so that tables are grouped by general subject areas (match overview, match personnel, match events).
• Design extension of FMRD database for hybrid tournaments (league + knockout phase), which just happens to be the format of the World Cup.  (Version 2.0.0?)
• Build an extension of the data entry forms for this new version of FMRD.
• Write abstract of paper to submit to NCSSORS, which has to be completed in the next ten days because I won't be here at the end of the month.  (More on that later!)

And I draw a huge sigh of relief upon finding out that NCSSORS "only" requires a 250-word abstract of my paper. 

The new entry forms should be completed tomorrow night.  I need to sit down and think about what new tables and extensions to current ones I need to properly model match result data in the World Cup.

Oh yes, and I have to go to work during the day, which more or less funds this "hobby".  That reminds me that I need to go to bed, which I will do right now.

Host team performance in World Cups

[Also posted at my other site, HexagonalBlog.]

I think it might be a good idea to look at previous World Cups and find out how the hosts fared in their opening matches.  Here's the full list, with the hosts listed first:

1930: Uruguay 1-0 Peru
1934: Italy 7-1 USA
1938: France 3-1 Belgium
1950: Brazil 4-0 Mexico
1954: Switzerland 2-1 Italy
1958: Sweden 3-0 Mexico
1962: Chile 3-1 Switzerland
1966: England 0-0 Uruguay
1970: Mexico 0-0 Soviet Union
1974: West Germany 1-0 Chile
1978: Argentina 2-1 Hungary
1982: Spain 1-1 Honduras
1986: Mexico 2-1 Belgium
1990: Italy 1-0 Austria
1994: USA 1-1 Switzerland
1998: France 3-0 South Africa
2002: South Korea 2-0 Poland, Japan 2-2 Belgium
2006: Germany 4-2 Costa Rica

So from 19 opening matches, there have been 14 wins by the host team and five draws.  No defeats.

There are some variances in quality amongst the hosts, of course, but the host teams' performance in their World Cup openers is not something to be considered lightly.

I agree that South Africa are perhaps the weakest host team in the history of the World Cup finals, but Mexico have a tall order if they are to score a win on Friday.  It will certainly be a historic result if they do.

A literature search of statistical applications to soccer

Benoit Emonet, "Revisiting Statistical Applications in Soccer", STS Report, Department of Mathematics, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, 2000.  [PDF]