Final Pythagorean table for 2010-11 English Football League Championship

In anticipation of requests from those performance analysts who follow this site, below is the final Pythagorean table for the 2010-11 English Football League Championship.  The Pythagorean league exponent is 1.70, as usual. 

QPR were clear winners but the table appears to say that the second automatic promotion place was a wash between Norwich and Swansea.  There weren't many teams that significantly overperformed this season, but several teams underperformed.  Watford were the biggest underperformer of all with a -7 Pythagorean residual.  Overall, league performance in line with statistical expectations would not have much of a difference with the exception of the second promotion place and Crystal Palace's survival in the Championship.

 

	League Table								Pythagorean
Team	GP	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts	W	D	L	Pts	Δ
Queens Park Rangers	46	24	16	6	71	32	+39	88	26	12	8	90	-2
Norwich City	46	23	15	8	83	58	+25	84	23	11	12	80	+4
Swansea City	46	24	8	14	69	42	+27	80	23	12	11	81	-1
Cardiff City	46	23	11	12	76	54	+22	80	22	11	13	77	+3
Reading	46	20	17	9	77	51	+26	77	23	11	12	80	-3
Nottingham Forest	46	20	15	11	69	50	+19	75	21	12	13	75	+0
Leeds United	46	19	15	12	81	70	+11	72	20	10	16	70	+2
Millwall	46	19	13	14	63	47	+16	70	20	13	13	73	-3
Burnley	46	18	14	14	65	61	+4	68	18	12	16	66	+2
Leicester City	46	19	10	17	76	71	+5	67	19	11	16	68	-1
Hull City	46	16	17	13	52	51	+1	65	16	14	16	62	+3
Middlesbrough	46	17	11	18	68	68	+0	62	17	11	18	62	+0
Ipswich Town	46	18	8	20	62	68	-6	62	16	12	18	60	+2
Watford	46	16	13	17	77	71	+6	61	19	11	16	68	-7
Bristol City	46	17	9	20	62	64	-2	60	17	12	17	63	-3
Portsmouth	46	15	13	18	52	60	-8	58	15	13	18	58	+0
Barnsley	46	14	14	18	55	66	-11	56	15	12	19	57	-1
Coventry City	46	14	13	19	54	58	-4	55	16	13	17	61	-6
Derby County	46	13	10	23	58	71	-13	49	14	12	20	54	-5
Crystal Palace	46	12	12	22	44	69	-25	48	11	12	23	45	+3
Doncaster Rovers	46	11	15	20	55	81	-26	48	12	11	23	47	+1
Preston North End	46	10	12	24	54	79	-25	42	12	11	23	47	-5
Scunthorpe United	46	12	6	28	43	87	-44	42	9	11	26	38	+4
Sheffield United	46	10	9	27	43	80	-37	39	10	11	25	41	-2

Comments

[Lexrifleman]

Interesting stuff - under any other circumstances Crystal Palace would have probably been relegated, but their record at Selhurst Park was as phenomenal as their record away from home was appalling. If their home form doesn't hold up next season (and there's no reason to believe it will) they'll struggle.

I've bookmarked your site and will definitely spending more time here!

[Howard Hamilton]

Thank you very much! It is gratifying to read from supporters about how the projections mesh well with how they viewed their team's performance. One possible extension is to create home and away Pythagoreans to drill down into the source of a team's performance, but the resulting table won't fit on the current page layout. I could write CSS to fix the problem or create a new page, but it's low on my priority list.